Oil stocks have been on a massive run lately thanks to elevated crude prices. Given their business profiles, Exxon, Chevron, and Conoco may respond differently if today’s high prices don’t last.
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
Exxon (NYSE: XOM) combines oil and gas production with refining and chemicals. This breadth may help cushion results if crude prices fall, though it won’t eliminate the effects of weaker energy markets.
XOM’s beta relative to oil is about 0.27 after accounting for broad market moves. This means that on average, a 10% fall in oil was associated with roughly a 2.7% fall in XOM. This estimate used weekly returns over three years through to October 16, 2026. XOM stock is up 58% over the past year while the price of US crude is up 68%.
Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
Like Exxon, Chevron (NYSE: CVX) is also fully integrated in that it combines production with refining. This gives it much more control over the supply chain and reduces some of the risks associated with each stage.
Over the same time frame as XOM, Chevron’s oil beta is about 0.21. This means a 10% fall in oil was associated with a 2.1% fall in CVX which makes it slightly more resilient than Exxon. CVX is up around 48% this past year compared to US crude at 68%.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)
Unlike Exxon and Chevron, ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) focuses mostly on exploration and production. This gives it more direct exposure to oil prices, which appears to amplify both gains and losses when prices rise and fall.
COP’s beta relative to the price of oil is about 0.34, which means a 10% fall in oil means a 3.4% fall in COP on average. This is reflected directly in the fact that COP gained the most between XOM, CVX, and COP having gained 71% this past year compared to crude at 68%.
Which Oil Stock Could Hold Up Best if Crude Falls?
Based on our beta-based sensitivity calculation and yearly performance, Chevron is the least sensitive to oil movements and should hold up the best if the price of crude falls.
